Taiwanwank

Second World War

- 1945. As the Allies stand victorious in Europe, news reaches high command that the Manhattan Project, specifically Project Alberta, is facing significant setbacks. A deployable atomic weapon will not be possible by the year’s end.

- In an effort to convince the Japanese that an Allied invasion of the Home Islands will not occur within the year, it is decided to use China as a strategic feint.

- Six US Army and Marine Corps divisions, along with several Commonwealth elements, land in Hainan and Guangdong in July 1945 under the command of Douglas MacArthur, beginning the bloody Southern Chinese Campaign. Heavy Allied casualties are inflicted, as the Imperial Japanese Army proves to be more fanatic than the Navy units faced by the Allies in the Pacific.

- The USSR launches an offensive in Manchuria and Sakhalin in August, crushing most of the Japanese garrisons stationed there. As the Soviets move further south towards Beijing, formal military aid and cooperation is agreed to with the Chinese Communists.

- Allied forces begin the invasion of the Home Islands in late September. Instead of the original plans to take the southern island of Kyushu, twenty-five US Army, Marine Corps, and Commonwealth divisions directly invade the main island of Honshu, landing at the Kanto Plain directly south of Tokyo.

- Despite Japanese command being caught off guard, their preparations for an invasion had already been ongoing well in advance. The brutal invasion quickly accrues the most American casualties in the country’s history, surpassing the American Civil War and the World Wars combined up until this point.

- Japanese losses are substantially greater, with up to more than nine million lives lost, primarily through the weaponization of civilians.

- After several months into the grinding carnage of the campaign, the imperial government finally surrenders in December, although pockets of resistance continue throughout Japanese territory.

- The US allows Chinese troops to occupy captured islands in the South and East China Sea in an effort to save American manpower.

- The Second World War ends.

Chinese Civil War

- Representatives of the Republic of China negotiate the administration of Okinawa in post-war agreements. Its official English name is changed to Chongsheng.

- Japan, economically hollowed out by the mass devastation caused by the Home Islands Campaign, agrees (under MacArthur’s pressure) to transfer the few remaining manufacturing and banking enterprises to Chinese state companies. Direct reconstruction efforts are primarily funded by the US, although the devastation inflicted would take decades to fully recover from.

- MacArthur’s reasoning is to eliminate any lasting presence of Japan’s zaibatsus, while also strengthening Chinese institutions in an effort to stabilize its economy and suppress the resurgent Chinese Communists. Elements of Japanese-style business groups (keiretsus) are retained, although they now act as new subsidiaries of the state-owned Bank of China.

- Despite these efforts, the Chinese Civil War resumes in 1946.

- Although the US gives limited material aid to the Nationalists, the Chinese Communists are heavily supplied by the Soviet Union, while also being able to seize Manchuria’s key industrial base. By mid-1948, the Communists have the clear upper hand as they initiate a final offensive.

- Despite minimal American intervention for much of the conflict, Washington recognizes the danger of completely losing the vast amounts of land where thousands of Americans had laid down their lives just a mere four years ago.

- The Seventh Fleet and elements of the Marine Corps are finally sent to assist the retreating Nationalists under MacArthur’s command.

- The Nationalists are able to hold Hainan and other coastal islands, as Communist forces are unable to establish a foothold with the presence of the US Navy.

- Nationalist units in Guangdong converge to a final pocket around the village of Shenzhen, as US Marines arrive to reinforce them. After heavy advocacy from MacArthur, the UK is convinced to enter the fray, sending units and logistical support from Hong Kong. With several landings by the Marines along the eastern banks of the Pearl River, the Communists are pushed back to the estuaries north of Dongguan. Combined with the terrain, a heavy stream of Communist reinforcements also makes it difficult for the Allies to push further. After months of failed Communist attacks and tactical stalemates, a ceasefire line is eventually drawn between Dongguan and Huizhou.

- With a shaky peace in place, the US and UK give further aid to the battered ROC. Shenzhen undergoes a transformation to become a massive joint Sino-American forward operating base, with additional support from the British garrison in Hong Kong.

- As the Communists declare the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, the Nationalists declare Taipei as the new capital of the ROC.

- The Bank of China, despite having relocated most of its assets to Taiwan, is in danger of being unable to finance the post-war ROC and the rehabilitation of its Japanese holdings. Out of the fear of an economic collapse in East Asia (and a quiet disapproval of MacArthur’s decision to place Japanese enterprises under Chinese control), Washington gives additional loans to Taipei.

Cold War

- The Korean War begins.

- The ROC joins UN forces as the remnants of the Republic of Korea are reinforced in Busan. A combined Allied offensive drives the Communist Koreans to the Yalu River within a few months.

- As UN forces approach the Chinese border, the PRC intervenes in the war in September 1950. The 300,000 strong People’s Volunteer Army crosses the Yalu and immediately engages UN forces.

- Caught off guard, the overwhelming Communist Chinese offensive inflicts heavy casualties on the US Eighth Army and much of the ROC Expeditionary Corps, forcing them to retreat back to Seoul.

- The American public becomes increasingly fatigued of brutal wars in the Far East, as it becomes clear that the prospect of a decisive victory is shrinking. Tibet’s concurrent surrender to the PRC also dismays many.

- ROC intelligence picks up the mobilization of Communist forces near Dongguan and Huzhou. Taipei tells Washington that even with fortifications in place, the ‘Dongguan Line’ cannot last in the face of a full onslaught at this stage.

- In the Soviet Union, its first atomic bomb is tested in January 1951 after years of setbacks and delays.

- Washington gives MacArthur a blank check to use tactical and strategic atomic weapons. The purpose is to achieve a decisive victory - and to do so before the Soviet stockpile grows beyond a mere handful of bombs.

- Atomic weapons are used in war for the first time in history. Dozens of smaller, tactical bombs are deployed on PVA lines, decimating them. Allied forces surge forward, breaking through the front lines and encircling (as well as avoiding) the impact zones. This is also the first case of combined arms used with tactical nuclear weapons.

 - Despite pushing back Communist forces back to the Yalu again, Beijing does not convey a willingness to settle for peace. A few days after MacArthur issues a ‘final warning’, a single strategic bomb is dropped on Shenyang, extinguishing the capital of Liaoning Province.

- The Korean War ends.

1950s - 1960s

- The Korean peninsula is officially unified under the Republic of Korea.

- An extremely antagonized Beijing refuses to make doctrinal peace with the West, becoming an isolated regime in the process. The US, along with the ROC, are labelled as archenemies of the PRC.

- The relationship between Moscow and Beijing, although shaky, remains a militarily close one.

- Taipei and Seoul establish a military alliance and the foundations for a potential economic partnership. Tokyo is given observer status. Washington, weary from the wars, funding the Marshall Plan and the Far East Fund (primarily in the immense task of rebuilding Japan), welcomes the formation of a regional bloc.

- The establishment of China Airlines, one of the first affordable civilian airlines in the world, makes migration between ROC territories significantly easier.

- A large number of naval skirmishes and artillery exchanges occur throughout the 1950s and early 60s, but Fortress Shenzhen (officially named the Chiang-MacArthur Joint Operating Base) is never attacked directly. The initial presence of the US Navy and the eventual growth of the ROC Navy and Air Force allow the Chinese Republicans to exert complete maritime control over coastal China.

- The conflict in Vietnam escalates.

- The ROC sends detachments of its navy and air force to join the US in Vietnam, yet refrains from being a full participant until the US offers to pay ROC troops to join. The PRC, which had been giving material aid to North Vietnam, increases its own troop contingent.

- In response to news of the PRC achieving its first successful nuclear test in 1964, the ROC completes its own tests in 1965, along the Macclesfield Bank in the South China Sea. World tensions heighten as the Taiwan Strait joins the growing number of potential nuclear sparks.

- The frequency of skirmishes and engagements between the two parties drop sharply.

- In 1966, the ROC Air Force in conjunction with Academia Sinica, launches China’s first satellite into orbit, becoming the fourth nation after the US, USSR and France to do so on its own delivery system. The ROC National Space Organization is formally established shortly thereafter.

- With news of the effects of Maoist policies spreading to the outside world, Chiang initiates a ‘Cultural Renaissance’ as a response to the Mainland’s Cultural Revolution. In addition to the goal of domestically promoting classical culture and values, it stands as Taipei’s first major soft power initiative to boost the perception of the ROC as the surviving carriers of Chinese and Confucian culture.

- As troop levels from both the PRC and ROC surge in Vietnam, many in the US fear an escalation of the war inciting a resumed conflict between the two Chinese nuclear powers - a view shared in the ROC. Despite losing some assistance, Washington asks for the ROC Expeditionary Force to be slowly withdrawn. Taipei gladly obliges.

- In 1969, delegations from the ROC, Korea and Japan agree to an expanded defense treaty, as well as a framework of a common customs union, common external tariffs and technical standardizations. Two years later, this culminates in the groundbreaking establishment of the East Asian Community.

1970s - 1980s

- The economies of EAC members undergo tremendous growth throughout the 70s and 80s.

- Political and economic divisions between Taiwan and Hainan accelerate the democratization process of the republic, as the government’s top planners foresee the unsustainability of continuous military rule in the long term. Hainan and other populated islands are given a greater voice in the government.

- With multiple political parties emerging in the ROC, the unofficial demonym for its citizens changes from ‘Nationalist Chinese’ to ‘Republican Chinese’.

- In 1973, Hainan is chosen as a Special Economic Area - an effort to boost the development of the island, which has advanced much more slowly compared to Taiwan. Over the next few years, the island’s infrastructure and economic output experience rapid growth.

- Republican Chinese conglomerates, who have maintained their dominance of Japan’s economy since 1946, hold the world’s second largest market share in manufacturing and high-end technologies (after American companies). Thus, despite having a smaller population than Japan and Korea, the ROC retains its de facto economic leadership.

- Regional cultures, such as Taiwanese, Hainanese, Liuqiuese (Ryukyuan) and Cantonese become increasingly accepted and celebrated as opposed to a sole Chinese identity. This varies, however, depending on the party in power.

- The war in Vietnam ends as Saigon falls.

- In 1977, talks commence between the ROC and the UK on a handover of Hong Kong, which already shares a near-open border with Shenzhen.

- The recently privatized Bank of China, with an increasing role in Japan, Korea and abroad, merges with its largest Korean counterpart to form the Asian Commercial and Financial Group. It soon becomes the largest bank in the world by total assets.

- In 1979, Beijing and Hanoi sign a mutual defense and economic cooperation treaty. Vietnam, still recovering from its war against the US, is given the PRC’s ‘blessing’ to expand its influence across Southeast Asia as a communist ally (the language giving Hanoi some annoyance).

- In 1981, the PRC begins to decollectivize its agriculture as it teeters on the brink of a mass famine.

- In 1987, the Soviet Union unexpectedly dissolves after two consecutive coups are attempted in Moscow within the span of weeks. Independence movements in Soviet republics also take hold far more rapidly than expected, and local military units begin to readily break off from their main chain of command. The new Russian Federation is declared in December.

- With its primary trading partner and sole military benefactor in chaos, elements within the PRC’s leadership accelerate the process of economic reform, opening its domestic market to the world economy.

- Beijing begins to seek normalized relations with Taipei for the first time in 1988, although it remains reluctant to do the same with the US. The ROC also begins to ease anti-Mainland sentiments, yet both sides continue to claim the seat of the sole legitimate Chinese government.

- A year later, Beijing's application for observer status in the UN is finally accepted with the approval of the ROC. Officially under the title of ‘Chinese Beijing’, ‘Mainland China’ is also allowed and used by Taipei.

- The changing economic situation in the PRC has most media outlets to standardize the demonym of PRC citizens to ‘Mainland Chinese’.

- With the dissolution of the USSR and warming relations between the PRC and ROC, the Cold War is perceived to come to a close.

1990s - 2000s

- In 1997, the UK completes the handover of Hong Kong to the ROC, to the celebration of many in the city. Hong Kong undergoes a 3-year integration period that sees full voting rights and ROC privileges by 2000.

- Portugal retains administration of Macau, although both Mainland and Republican Chinese are allowed to easily enter the city.

- In 2005, the PRC acquires WTO membership with the US and EAC as its largest trading partners. However, an internal power struggle begins to form along ideological lines. While a great deal of economic growth has occurred since 1988, development is slower than expected, with festering concerns about an emerging housing bubble.

- In late 2007, the concerns manifest into reality as housing prices crash. The overcapacity of the Mainland’s real estate market without a middle class growing fast enough to buy them has left developers in heavy debt. Unemployment skyrockets as development across the country crawls to a halt.

- Beijing is unable to implement a plan in time to prevent the capital flight of foreign companies and the illegal outflow of massive funds by those who have accumulated massive wealth since 1988. The economy enters a stage of deep recession.

- In the same summer that Taipei hosts the 2008 Olympics, units of the People’s Liberation Army seize control of government buildings in major cities. Official government mouthpieces go silent as telecommunications across the country are shut off. The ROC, already partially mobilized for the Olympics, increases its readiness levels.

- After five days pass, it is announced in Beijing that the PLA will act as the new ruling government under the newly formed People’s Restoration Committee. It immediately calls for ending open investment and trade with its historic archrivals in the ROC, Japan and the US, as well as withdrawing its membership from the WTO.

- It is revealed that most of the PLA’s senior leadership was mutinized by younger officers who ascribe to a militarized interpretation of the Chinese New Left - the return of the Mainland to its socialist roots. Supported by lower-level cadres and leftist intellectuals, the military government seeks to restore elements of Maoism and collectivist state planning, while stressing even closer ties with Russia, Vietnam and other friendly countries from the Cold War.

- The coup and subsequent reversal of the Mainland’s economic reforms sends shockwaves throughout the global community. Nearly every single country denounces the acts, and even those on friendly terms with Beijing express deep concerns.

- Over the next few years, the world economy enters a massive recession caused in part by the reversal of the PRC’s integration into global market and a separate financial crisis in Europe and the US. Despite an increase in inflammatory economic rhetoric from Beijing, ROC intelligence sees nominal military activity.

- EAC members, while experiencing slowed growth for two quarters, stave off most of the potential damage. Ironically, part of this is due to the closure of the Mainland’s export market, which rediverts a substantial portion of global demand back to the diverse value of EAC-produced goods (high and low cost goods). Another factor is the influx of capital from wealthy Mainlanders, relocating much of their assets abroad as soon as the economy began to deteriorate. Most of them settle in Republican China.

- With EAC economies becoming further intertwined across migration, supply chains and businesses (largely under the influence of megacorporations), the next step of integrating East Asia begins with the planning of an eventual East Asian Union - a union with open borders, a shared currency, and a unified defense force.

Etcetera

- The ROC by 2015 has an indigenous missile defense system, a sophisticated satellite program, and an undisclosed number of nuclear weapons.

- Taipei hosts the world’s most powerful supercomputer, Tianhe-5. Capable of 35 quadrillion calculations per second, it is used for both civilian and military purposes.


*The GDP per capita statistic shown in the map is incorrect - it should be $46,122 (ranked 13th in the world)